What Happened Often Happens

Anyone who has done something rare—
Published a novel, won a gold medal,
Committed a murder, flown in space—

Is more likely to do that very thing again
Than would be any rando who hasn’t yet.
That’s just Bayesian. Know your priors.

Even to win the lottery—although there
The difference in likelihood is tiny, given
The independence of the long-odd draws.

Why? Because the people who win tend
To be the sort of people who purchase
Lots of lottery tickets. They won’t stop.

The ticket odds don’t improve for winners,
But winners are more likely to be players,
Players now with more money for playing.

Want to know what you’re most likely
To do that fairly few people have done?
Whatever odd thing you’ve already done.

Could be breaking bones or writing poems
Or teaching multiple subjects. You know
Your own priors. The more weird they are,

The stranger ways your life is likely to go.
Only the purely, wholly, truly unremarkable
Will likely remain among the rare unrare.